Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
نویسندگان
چکیده
A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme-local approximation in a reconstructed phase space-for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20°N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of oneto twelve-month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENS0 and the North Atlantic Oscillation.
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